2024 NFL Mock Draft: Final full first-round computer simulation (2024)

2024 NFL Mock Draft: Final full first-round computer simulation (1)

Paul Bretl

April 24, 2024 7:39 am ET

The 2024 NFL draft is almost here, but before it arrives, it is time for one full first-round mock draft where the computer makes all of the picks.

This time, I used ESPN’s mock draft simulator, and what I like most about this process with the machine making the selections is that, as much as possible anyways, it takes the human element out of the equation.

We all evaluate prospects differently, view athletic traits through different lenses, and won’t all prioritize team needs the same. This experiment takes a lot of that off the table. Now of course, there are still variables involved, but they’re greatly reduced.

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Here is how the final 2024 mock draft turned out with the simulator in charge, along with insights about each prospect from ESPN’s Jeff Legwold.

1.1: Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams, QB USC

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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 18: Caleb Williams #13 of the USC Trojans passes the ball during the first half of a game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on November 18, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Height: 6-1

Weight: 214

RAS: N/A

Consensus ranking: 1st

ESPN analysis: “Williams’ improvisational skills and ability to extend plays are considered the best many scouts have seen in years. He finished his collegiate career with 120 total touchdowns and a long list of “How did he do that?” plays to go along with 14 interceptions. Williams will need to improve his decision-making when leaving the pocket (33 career fumbles) and clean up his accuracy when going deep.”

1.2: Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

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Quarterback Jayden Daniels 5 as the LSU Tigers take on Texas A&M in Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, November 25, 2023.

Height: 6-3

Weight: 210

RAS: N/A

Consensus ranking: 4th

ESPN analysis: “Daniels threw 40 TD passes and four interceptions in his 2023 Heisman Trophy-winning season, averaging a FBS-high 11.7 yards per attempt. He also rushed for 1,184 yards and 10 TDs last season. Daniels’ slight frame might concern some teams, especially since he doesn’t shy away from contact. But he plays with awareness, possesses high-end decision-making skills and maintains consistent accuracy all over the field. Some NFL personnel executives have Daniels graded as high as Williams.”

1.3: New England Patriots – JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan

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December 31, 2022; Glendale, Ariz; USA; Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy (9) throws a pass during the pregame before the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium.

Ncaa Fiesta Bowl Game

Height: 6-2

Weight: 219

RAS: N/A

Consensus ranking: 7th

ESPN analysis: “McCarthy is not the high-volume passer other prospects on the board are — he had 27 career games with 15 or fewer completions — but his ability in an NFL-style scheme and his decisiveness are worthy of a long look. He doesn’t always move through progressions as smoothly as others and has had a long delivery at times, but when he sees it, he drives the ball with accuracy. He will need time on the learning curve, so he might not become what he could be if he’s rushed into starting.”

1.4 (TRADE): Las Vegas Raiders – Drake Maye, QB, UNC

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Nov 11, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks to pass in the first quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-4

Weight: 223

RAS: N/A

Consensus ranking: 2nd

ESPN analysis: “His physical profile in the pocket is among the best of the QBs in this class. His arm strength is not a question — he threw 62 touchdown passes over the past two seasons — but his accuracy has drifted at times, especially this past season. Maye doesn’t always decode where the openings are in coverages and will have to find the line between bold and bad, but his biggest supporters see Justin Herbert-level potential.”

1.5: Los Angeles Chargers - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

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Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-3

Weight: 209

RAS: N/A

Consensus ranking: 3rd

ESPN analysis: “Harrison is the first two-time All-American wide receiver in Ohio State history and first two-time unanimous All-America wide receiver in the Big Ten in almost three decades. He has elite route construction and high-end play speed, and he can catch the ball any place on the field.”

1.6: New York Giants - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

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Matthew Dobbins-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-0

Weight: 199

RAS: 9.67

Consensus ranking: 5th

ESPN analysis: “Nabers led the SEC in receptions for two consecutive seasons. While some will quibble with the details in his routes, his explosiveness (42-inch vertical jump at pro day), speed and toughness far outweigh anything else. His 34 receptions of 20-plus yards in 2023 led the country.”

1.7: Tennessee Titans - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Height: 6-2

Weight: 212

RAS: 9.92

Consensus ranking: 6th

ESPN analysis: “Odunze led the FBS with 1,640 receiving yards in 2023, averaging a staggering 17.8 yards per catch. He scored 21 total TDs (20 receiving, one rushing) over his past 27 games and displays rare body control that gives him the ability to win contested catches more than any other receiver in this draft. His 32 receptions of at least 20 yards were second in the FBS only to Nabers.”

1.8: Atlanta Falcons - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

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Jan 1, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish offensive lineman Joe Alt (76) defends against Oklahoma State Cowboys defensive end Brock Martin (9) in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-8

Weight: 321

RAS: 9.93

Consensus ranking: 8th

ESPN analysis: “Alt is a two-time All-American that is a pro-ready, big-framed tackle with high-end movement skills and recovery ability. He is simply difficult to get around, even for the most talented rushers. And when he does get into trouble, his strength allows him to clean up almost any difficulties.”

1.9: Chicago Bears - Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama

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Dec 2, 2023; Atlanta, GA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Dallas Turner (15) celebrates after a sack in the second quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-2

Weight: 247

RAS: 8.86

Consensus ranking: 9th

ESPN analysis: “Turner is not as polished a pass-rusher as former teammateWill Anderson Jr. was heading into last year’s draft, but Turner’s strength is at the top of the scale, and he recorded a wide receiver-level 40-yard dash time and a 40½-inch vertical jump at the combine. He finished his career at Alabama with 23.5 sacks (11 in 2023) and 33.5 tackles for loss.”

1.10: New York Jets - JC Latham, OT, Alabama

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Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-5

Weight: 342

RAS: N/A

Consensus ranking: 20th

ESPN analysis: “There are rough edges in his footwork at times, especially if he isn’t fine-tuned in his sets in pass protection, but he scatters defenders when he gets it right. Latham’s strength and dominances makes for a powerful punch against the rush. Crimson Tide coaches had him for 41 knockdown blocks in 13 games.”

1.11: Minnesota Vikings - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

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Joshua L. Jones/USA TODAY NETWORK

Height: 6-3

Weight: 243

RAS: N/A

Consensus ranking: 10th

ESPN analysis: “Bowers was the first back-to-back Mackey Award winner and fits every part of an NFL passing game. He has elite hands, body control and separation in his routes. Bowers scored 26 TDs and averaged 14.5 yards per catch over his three collegiate seasons at Georgia. He lined up all over the formation in the Bulldogs’ high-powered attack and also averaged 10.2 yards per carry on 19 career rushing attempts.”

1.12: Denver Broncos - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

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Oct 8, 2022; Stanford, California, USA; Oregon State Beavers offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga (75) blocks Stanford Cardinal linebacker Levani Damuni (3) during the first quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamash*ta-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-5

Weight: 324

RAS: 9.63

Consensus ranking: 17th

ESPN analysis: “Fuaga started 25 games at right tackle over the past two seasons. Many offensive line coaches see him as technically proficient in pass protection and run blocking, but he has some rough edges that need smoothing. While some might think about moving him to guard, his pass-protection skills deserve a longer look at tackle. He’s smooth out of his stance into his sets and skillful with his hands as he mirrors the rushers.”

1.13 (Trade from Raiders): Arizona Cardinals - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

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Dec 2, 2023; Detroit, MI, USA; Toledo Rockets cornerback Quinyon Mitchell (27) breaks up a pass intended for Miami (OH) Redhawks wide receiver Gage Larvadain (10) in the third quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-0

Weight: 195

RAS: 9.79

Consensus ranking: 11th

ESPN analysis: “Mitchell was easily the most aggressive cornerback at the Senior Bowl as he enthusiastically challenged receivers at the line. He has everything defensive coordinators want: size, speed, physicality, composure and assertive tackling. He had a four-interception game in 2022 and returned two of those for touchdowns as he led the Mid-American Conference in passes defended in 2022 and 2023, with 19 and 18, respectively.”

1.14: New Orleans Saints - Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington

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Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Washington Huskies offensive lineman Troy Fautanu (55) blocks for tight end Devin Culp (83) against the Michigan Wolverines during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-3

Weight: 317

RAS: 9.62

Consensus ranking: 21st

ESPN analysis: “Fautanu started 29 games at left tackle and two at left guard in his career with the Huskies. Some see a move to guard because of the raw physicality in his game and what some personnel evaluators see as difficulties against bigger pass-rushers. But offensive line coaches really like his attitude, aptitude and rugged demeanor.”

1.15: Indianapolis Colts - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

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Sep 23, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Terrion Arnold (3) carries the ball after an interception against the Mississippi Rebels during the second half of a football game at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 5-11

Weight: 189

RAS: 9.27

Consensus ranking: 12th

ESPN analysis: “If you talk to NFL secondary coaches, there are few safer bets than Crimson Tide defensive backs. Their technique is routinely at the top of the scale. Add in the ability/work ethic it takes to simply start for Alabama, and you have a player NFL defenses covet. Arnold has smooth footwork, always competes to win the play and finds the ball. He had five interceptions and 17 pass breakups in 2023.”

1.16: Seattle Seahawks - Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State

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Sep 17, 2022; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton (10) celebrates with offensive lineman Olumuyiwa Fashanu (74) after scoring a touchdown against the Auburn Tigers during the third quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-6

Weight: 312

RAS: 9.58

Consensus ranking: 16th

ESPN analysis: “Penn State coaches graded Fashanu as not having allowed a sack in his 29 career games — more than 700 pass-blocking snaps. He could physically overwhelm most defenders he faced each week, but there is work to do to smooth out his footwork. His size, ability to recover to save plays and willingness to put in the work give him a chance to be a quality left tackle.”

1.17: Jacksonville Jaguars - Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

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Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-2

Weight: 209

RAS: 9.84

Consensus ranking: 18th

ESPN analysis: “When you lead your team, as well as the nation, with 17 touchdown catches and Nabers is your teammate, you’ve done something. Thomas averaged 17.3 yards per catch last season and is a player with everything he needs to consistently win the ball in the NFL. His routes aren’t as polished as some coaches would like but, if he puts in the work, Thomas is a WR1 waiting to happen.”

1.18: Cincinnati Bengals - Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State

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Dec 2, 2023; Charlotte, NC, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive lineman Jared Verse (5) reacts during the fourth quarter against the Louisville Cardinals at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-3

Weight: 254

RAS: 9.60

Consensus ranking: 14th

ESPN analysis: “After transferring from Albany (where he arrived as a tight end), Verse had 18 sacks and 29.5 tackles for loss in 25 games for the Seminoles. He is the full package of relentlessness and savvy and a walk-in starter who will catch on quickly, especially against more physical NFL offensive tackles.”

1.19: Los Angeles Rams - Byron Murphy, IDL, Texas

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Texas Longhorns defensive lineman Byron Murphy II (90) celebrates sacking Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht (3) during the game at Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 8, 2023 in Ames, Iowa.

Height: 6-0

Weight: 297

RAS: 9.23

Consensus ranking: 15th

ESPN analysis: “Murphy is an interior rusher who consistently wins on the first step and disrupts things at the point of attack. He had 8.5 tackles for loss and five sacks and routinely bottled things up inside. Murphy will be coveted by teams because he projects as a three-down player who can line up in a variety of spots across the defensive front. He also scored a receiving and a rushing touchdown this past season.”

1.20: Pittsburgh Steelers: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

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Jan 9, 2023; Inglewood, CA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs offensive lineman Amarius Mims (65) and offensive lineman Tate Ratledge (69) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the CFP national championship game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-7

Weight: 340

RAS: 9.59

Consensus ranking: 22nd

ESPN analysis: “Mims has an abbreviated résumé compared to other tackles on the board — playing seven games with six starts in his career with the Bulldogs — but his combination of size and ability is rare (arm span of 86¾ inches gave him the biggest reach at the combine). He had surgery to repair an ankle injury in 2023 and returned to play the last three games of the regular season. A bit of a projection at this point, but he has the potential to play either tackle spot, and his work against some of the SEC’s best on the edge showed proficiency worthy of a Day 1 pick.”

1.21: Miami Dolphins - Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon

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Nov 18, 2023; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Oregon Ducks offensive lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson (58) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-3

Weight: 328

RAS: N/A

Consensus ranking: 29th

ESPN analysis: “He made a start on the defensive line, as well as both guard spots, as a freshman, and he won the Rimington Award this past season as the nation’s best center. He fared well early in the week at the Senior Bowl until a hamstring injury forced him out of practices. He plays with toughness, awareness and makes interior rushers pay the price — exactly what the NFL wants in a long-term solution at center.”

1.22: Philadelphia Eagles - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

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Nov 25, 2023; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers cornerback Nate Wiggins (2) smiles after breaking up a pass to South Carolina wide receiver Nyck Harbor (8) during the fourth quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Clemson won 16-7. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-1

Weight: 173

RAS: 9.44

Consensus ranking: 23rd

ESPN analysis: “Wiggins is one of the fastest players in the draft and smooth in coverage. He plays with the confidence of a player who knows he has a top gear to make up space when needed. He moves easily with receivers and is hard for them to shake. Wiggins returned two of his three career interceptions for touchdowns and forced two fumbles this past season with chase-down plays. However, some defensive coordinators will say he needs to be a far more willing participant in run support.”

1.23: Minnesota Vikings - Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

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Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-0

Weight: 203

RAS: 9.85

Consensus ranking: 19th

ESPN analysis: “DeJean fractured his lower leg in November and missed the remainder of the season, but he said he has been cleared to return to football activities. He’ll need the right fit in the league, but he plays the ball like a receiver and returned three of his seven career interceptions for touchdowns. He’s also one of the best punt returners on the board — he averaged 13.1 yards per return over the past two seasons.”

1.24: Dallas Cowboys - Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

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Oct 28, 2023; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Oklahoma Sooners offensive lineman Tyler Guyton (60) at the line of scrimmage against the Kansas Jayhawks during the game at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-7

Weight: 322

RAS: 9.73

Consensus ranking: 30th

ESPN analysis: “Guyton could easily go in the middle of the first round (the Sooners used him as an H back from time to time early in his career) and many evaluators say he has the ability to be an NFL starter at either right or left tackle. His issue initially will be he plays too upright and while he has the footwork and recovery skills to limit problems against collegiate rushers, it could give him some bumps in the developmental road.”

1.25: Green Bay Packers - Graham Barton, IOL, Duke

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Nov 11, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils offensive lineman Graham Barton (62) before the game at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-5

Weight: 313

RAS: 9.99

Consensus ranking: 25th

ESPN analysis: “While Barton did not do the bench press at the combine or his pro day as he dealt with a left shoulder injury, he still projects as the top center in this draft. With 34 starts at left tackle over the past three seasons at Duke (he started five games at center as a freshman), Barton is a safe bet with quality technique in a high-effort, physical approach. He simply wins snap after snap in pass protection and the run game.”

1.26: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri

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Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-5

Weight: 285

RAS: 7.78

Consensus ranking: 33rd

ESPN analysis: “Robinson is a work in progress because he played in an edge role in the Tigers’ defense more this past season than he had previously — 14 of his 21 career sacks came in 2023. He plays with power, has the reach to frustrate opposing tackles, is reliable in how he sets the edge and has versatility across the defensive front.”

1.27: Arizona Cardinals - Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

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Jan 1, 2024; New Orleans, LA, USA; Texas Longhorns wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (5) catches a touchdown pass against Washington Huskies running back Ryder Bumgarner (25) during the fourth quarter in the 2024 Sugar Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-2

Weight: 205

RAS: 9.99

Consensus ranking: 28th

ESPN analysis: “Talk to scouts about Mitchell and it won’t take long for the Alabama game to come up. He had three catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns against a secondary laden with NFL-worthy talent. His challenge will be to play like that each week given he wasn’t always consistent catching the ball or winning in tight quarters, even against smaller defenders.”

1.28: Buffalo Bills - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

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Texas Longhorns wide receiver Xavier Worthy (1) runs the ball during the Sugar Bowl College Football Playoffsemifinals game against the Washington Huskies at the Caesars Superdome on Monday, Jan. 1, 2024 in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Height: 5-11

Weight: 165

RAS: 9.41

Consensus ranking: 35th

ESPN analysis: “Worthy set the combine’s 40-yard dash record in Lucas Oil Stadium in March. Not only is he the fastest-timed player in this year’s draft, but he’s also one of the best punt returners, averaging 14.5 career yards per return at Texas. Worthy is undersized and he’ll need to be part of an offense that creates space to get him the ball, but once he has it, he will close the deal. Worthy had 26 receiving TDs in 39 career games for the Longhorns.”

1.29: Detroit Lions - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

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Alabama defensive back Kool-Aid McKinstry (1) gestures in celebration after Tennessee failed to convert a 4th down in the fourth quarter of a football game between Tennessee and Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023.

Height: 5-11

Weight: 199

RAS: 7.54

Consensus ranking: 24th

ESPN analysis: “While McKinstry had a Jones fracture (a fracture of the fifth metatarsal) in his right foot that prohibited him from participating at the combine, he did run at his pro day March 20 and had surgery to repair the fracture two days later. Teams believe he will be ready to participate at some point in training camp. McKinstry rarely makes assignment errors and plays with composure, and his technique and savvy make him a good fit in a variety of defenses. He is also one of the better punt returners in the draft.”

1.30: Baltimore Ravens - Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State

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Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-3

Weight: 254

RAS: 9.72

Consensus ranking: 27th

ESPN analysis: “Any player who weighs more than 250 pounds and runs the 40-yard dash in under 4.5 seconds is going to attract attention. Robinson is just beginning to find himself as a player, so he has room to grow. His game is raw — his season high for sacks was 5.5 in 2022 — but his flexibility, speed to the corner and physicality give away the top-tier rusher in there.”

1.31: San Francisco 49ers - Johnny Newton, IDL, Illinois

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Nov 6, 2021; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini defensive lineman Jer’Zhan Newton (94) reacts to a missed stop in the third quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-2

Weight: 295

RAS: N/A

Consensus ranking: 26th

ESPN analysis: “One of the best interior pass-rushers on the board with 22.5 tackles for loss and 13 sacks over the past two seasons combined. He had more than 100 pressures over those two seasons, and personnel executives say that is the most of any interior linemen in this draft. He had surgery in January to repair a fracture in his foot, so he did not participate in workouts at the combine or Illinois’ pro day.”

1.32: Kansas City Chiefs - Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

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Nov 25, 2023; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats offensive lineman Jordan Morgan (77) against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the Territorial Cup at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-5

Weight: 311

RAS: 9.24

Consensus ranking: 36th

ESPN analysis: “Morgan produced high-quality work this past season after a right ACL tear with three games remaining in 2022. He plays with sound footwork and rare flexibility in his lower body. He’ll need to play with a bit more power as a pro and clean up his hand placements, but he projects as a starting left tackle.”

Read all the best Colts coverage at The Indy Star and Colts Wire.

2024 NFL Mock Draft: Final full first-round computer simulation (2024)

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